Transcript
00:00:00: Chris Gonzalez Hello guys, welcome to another episode of Back Testing and Chill. My name is Christopher and my friend is Matt. 00:00:08: Matt Concordia Yes, Sir. 00:00:09: Chris Gonzalez The main trader, the one taking the will today as usual. 00:00:14 Chris Gonzalez I just woke up so I don't want to make any mistakes. So you're gonna take it, my man. 00:00:19 Matt Concordia Sounds good. Yeah. Let's go back in to where we were at before. I think we were. We were on Euro USD and testing that. So let's just jump right in again. 00:00:32 Matt Concordia And there we are. Here it is. Our account balance is 102332. So we are up about two and a bit percent. 00:00:42 Matt Concordia Yeah, 2.3. So let's get a rock and let's go from top down. 00:00:47 Matt Concordia OK. 00:00:47 Matt Concordia So again, just like before, we were saying was was that what you're really bearish on the monthly. You could see that right there right, that little gap we respect it, we break back down. So to me the the next level is just down in in the year. 00:01:02 Matt Concordia On the monthly. 00:01:03 Chris Gonzalez Yes, and even in Tibet, Pearl Valley got followed. 00:01:05 Matt Concordia Yeah, exactly over here. 00:01:09 Matt Concordia Agreed. 00:01:10 Chris Gonzalez That that looks really, really. 00:01:13 Matt Concordia Yeah. And like again, just going back on from what we talked about before, internal to external, right, where you have, you know you have this down move, you have internal to external to internal to external. So that's just the next clean move. So I mean it's very clear on the monthly. 00:01:31 Chris Gonzalez Yeah, I'm gonna. 00:01:32 Chris Gonzalez OK. 00:01:34 Matt Concordia One thing that we do have to note though is the fact that we already did take out 1/2 monthly lows and we're getting a little bit of a reaction out of it. So just just to be aware of that and also. 00:01:45 Chris Gonzalez What day of the month is it? 00:01:48 Matt Concordia Exactly. Good call. It's we're about halfway through the month, I believe. Yeah, we'll, we'll check. We'll check on the daily, but yeah, definitely looking like we're going to come back down some more. I don't know why that or why I had to leave this. I was probably on the. Yeah, that's. 00:02:03 Matt Concordia OK, so let's go to the weekly. Yeah, this is beautiful. I think last time where we were kept, we traded this week or this week. 00:02:10 Matt Concordia I can't remember and yeah, this week actually. And we targeted these lows down into this into this Wick here, but definitely looking like it's going to continue down on the weekly though we do have to be aware that it could pop back up here. 00:02:25 Chris Gonzalez Which can be a great area. Yeah. You'll write it down. 00:02:28 Matt Concordia Exactly because. Yeah, right here we just we took out all of these these lows and we failed to break below, right. We took out one low 2 low, 3 low. This is all the the two monthly lows here as well. So maybe this is going to start like to me it looks more like this week. We're probably going to start down maybe I would mark out 50% of this week as well because it might come back down to there. 00:02:49 Matt Concordia And start gravitating towards up into here and again if we use our same logic where we have internal to external to internal to external something like that. So let's just see how that how that goes there. 00:03:05 Matt Concordia Yeah, look at right, these lows we hit, hit, hit. We're failing to break back below them. Closing back up. So yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we see it fade back down and then back up into this level up here to take up this high. 00:03:17 Chris Gonzalez I'm a little curious on if we're respecting the 50% of reorder walking LA the exact without them. 00:03:26 Matt Concordia Let's see. 00:03:28 Matt Concordia Yeah, we definitely are. If I use the Wicks, you could see the 50% is literally right here respecting that it did close through through it a little bit, but. 00:03:36 Chris Gonzalez A little bit. 00:03:38 Matt Concordia But yeah. 00:03:38 Chris Gonzalez Came back up. 00:03:39 Matt Concordia Exactly. It came back up immediately, so I'm assuming that this is going to that. Not that this little high right here. The swing high is going to be the draw. 00:03:48 Matt Concordia That's what I would anticipate it. I mean it's looking. 00:03:49 Matt Concordia Like it again, we can't be. 00:03:53 Matt Concordia We have to realize that the monthly is clearly down to take out this low and there there are equal lows here. So I am I am aware of that. If we do get a cell like say for example it comes and takes out these daily highs and then fails and shows cells like I'm definitely going to be interested in the cells more. But it's just it's looking like that's going to be the draw so. 00:04:13 Matt Concordia 4 hour very, very clear, very clear rejections too and you can actually see we got the 123 runs to the downside, so would not be surprised to see this pop back up like that. 00:04:30 Matt Concordia It does look like it. 00:04:32 Matt Concordia And anything else really that's here. Did we? We didn't really break anything. We do have a four hour fair value gap right here. That's that's being respected so far. 00:04:46 Matt Concordia Like so. But yeah, I would like to see it close back above, retest it, and then go up into this high. 00:04:55 Matt Concordia But you can see here this, this these equal lows here swept by this one candle. That's that's a potential order block here. 00:05:04 Matt Concordia Considering our analysis is pointing more towards the upside, so wouldn't be surprised to see this this get some reaction here or again down to that 50% into that way, but still within this order block. So let's just see let's go down to the one hour you can see. Yep. Look at that last sequence of down candles purging the low Bear Valley gap in between. 00:05:24 Matt Concordia This is a high probability order block in my opinion. Plus to take this high we'll say. 00:05:31 Matt Concordia We'll just mark it off because that'll be like a little short term target to get out up into here because what could happen is something like this is it comes back down to here, hits this high, uses this as that like that liquidity that buy side liquidity to fill up the orders and start continuing down like that. 00:05:50 Matt Concordia Right. So. 00:05:51 Chris Gonzalez Basically right. 00:05:51 Matt Concordia Yeah, I think that that's I think that that's pretty good for the for the higher time frame and and you know kind of where we're going here. 00:05:58 Matt Concordia So let's just say green for the intraday and yeah, let's go to our New York session. 00:06:05 Yes. 00:06:05 Matt Concordia Yeah. See, so there we go. 00:06:07 Matt Concordia New York session was hit here on Monday. 00:06:10 Matt Concordia And you could see it just immediately started off in that gap breaks back up. Look at how it respects this right here, right. It it respects it comes back down, but then uses the the down candles as an order block right here. So it's just respecting. And you can say the exact same thing. 00:06:25 Matt Concordia Right here. OK. 00:06:26 Matt Concordia Order block right here. Last sequence of down candles. And now that we came up and use this as a support. 00:06:32 Matt Concordia Just that gap that I was that I pointed out there, I'd be more inclined to see this going up to take out this high. Now I don't see any reason why it's going to. 00:06:41 Chris Gonzalez Especially on in one. 00:06:42 Matt Concordia Day, especially on a Monday. So I think that, yeah, I think that this is starting off on a Monday perfectly because if I just go to the session here. So this is this, this is the open of the new week, right, so new week if we're bearish on this new week and it's starting off on Monday to hit take this high out. Well guess what I'm looking for rest of the week. 00:07:01 Matt Concordia Now after that so I think that this is perfect to ride this up into this high at least. OK, so that's what we could be looking for. Let's go in the 10 minute. 00:07:14 Matt Concordia One hour was just super clean there. It has the one fair value gap. So I like the one hour the best and yeah, you're going to be looking at that to this level. And that's probably like what? 00:07:23 Matt Concordia 20 hit range. 00:07:26 Matt Concordia That I can wait on the five minute or some order flow. So let's do that. Actually I should turn on my session indicator. 00:07:35 Matt Concordia My session exactly. So here we go. So you could see that it started there at seven and we're good to go. 00:07:42 Matt Concordia So again, coming right back down, this is exactly what we want to see in New York session like coming right back down straight into that fair value gap just started off right before that 8:30 at timing. And so then we just want to you know, see a continuation up to that high. Really I'd like to see now it depends. 00:08:01 Matt Concordia Let's see. We have this whole leg here, right? That it could come back down into...I don't think it will because of the fair value gap on the one hour but if we could just wake back below this level, let's see if we could start tracking the fair value gaps on the sell side, we want to see those break. 00:08:22 Matt Concordia So this one held. 00:08:27 Matt Concordia We can track that down here. 00:08:30 Matt Concordia This one broke right through, but close right back within. 00:08:35 Matt Concordia There we go. 00:08:36 Matt Concordia So now we get back into that level. That's our one hour order block, our one hour fair value gap, OK. 00:08:42 Matt Concordia So this one is where I would really like to see it because we have some traffic right here as well. 00:08:50 Matt Concordia See this this last sequence of down candles right here. Boom. That's traffic. So if we start to hit this level, we break back up like that. 00:08:57 Matt Concordia That's a good bomb in my opinion, and I think minimum we could target this high. 00:09:04 Chris Gonzalez Baron grace? Yes. I just would like to see the. 00:09:09 Chris Gonzalez 15 minutes. 00:09:10 Matt Concordia Yeah. 00:09:11 Matt Concordia Yeah, let's take let's let's reassess here from where we're at. So we on the hourly, it is 10. So the start of the new hour is right here. So the start of that new hour immediately goes down into our key level, right. So that's really, really good to start off the hour. That's exactly what we're wanting, because that's going to look like this, right, start of the hour whips down to create. 00:09:31 Matt Concordia That WIC breaks back up to create that high closes out like that. That's our bullish candle on the one hour, and it hit our one hour key level, so really, really good way to start this 10 AM. 00:09:43 Chris Gonzalez At this price action and really clear acid as its spin, respecting the fair value gaps. 00:09:49 Matt Concordia Exactly. 00:09:50 Matt Concordia Everyone. Yep. Agree it's no, it's it's. It's really beautiful the way that it's it's supporting now is really nice. I really like this. Lassie puts it down. Candles. This candle right here came in and allowed for mitigation. 00:10:03 Matt Concordia Of this bear valley. 00:10:04 Matt Concordia Up here. 00:10:06 Matt Concordia As well, right? So wicked back down into it mitigated out of it. Rallied back up. So it's coming right back down into the retest here. So again, this is looking really, really good for me. I would just wait for probably a shift through this fair fair value gap and then we're good to go. 00:10:27 Matt Concordia See, so that was the last fair value gap. 00:10:30 Matt Concordia Just going straight down so it is going down further. So let's let's look at. 00:10:35 Matt Concordia Let's look at that one hour. Yeah. See, I wanted to. 00:10:39 Chris Gonzalez No, sorry, go ahead. I was just going to say that we still have that gap and that rejection block. 00:10:45 Chris Gonzalez Exactly. Gon, should we? 00:10:46 Chris Gonzalez Kill. Ohh sorry. 00:10:47 Matt Concordia Yep, and. And if you actually look at the, the only thing is I was just going to say we came back up into a little tiny gap up here. 00:11:00 Matt Concordia Uhm, I think it's the yeah. 00:11:03 Matt Concordia So that's the most extreme point. We took out this high. 00:11:07 Matt Concordia Now I really wanted to see that well, to be honest, I wanted to see this for value gap world as opposed to just slide through it inefficiently because now it's slid through this one here. 00:11:18 Matt Concordia Right. And it slid through this one right here as well. 00:11:25 Matt Concordia So part of Maine is a little concerned that now this is probably just going to retest up here and come and take out this low. 00:11:34 Matt Concordia I didn't. I didn't want to see that. I didn't want to see it slide through that. I wanted to see it hold there respect and then continue up. But the fact that we slid through it is making me a little bit more bearish. 00:11:48 Chris Gonzalez Is instead of the. 00:11:48 Matt Concordia And again, that goes to. That's what their our higher timeframe buys, right, the, the the monthly but anyways go. 00:11:53 Matt Concordia Ahead, Chris, sorry. 00:11:54 Chris Gonzalez No, no, no, no worry like this is one of those scenarios where we have. 00:11:59 Chris Gonzalez Conflicting bias. The two of us, and I do agree with you, as I can see the other possibility flying on too. So I would just wait right now. Yeah, for for pricing. 00:12:13 Chris Gonzalez Yea. I do agree on. 00:12:15 Matt Concordia Yeah, I watch like this is. This is what I'm anticipating right from here. Again, I'm not going to take any execute any trades on this because it just doesn't make sense. But this fair value gap is matching up with the one that just got slid through. Wouldn't be surprised if it comes back up into this high comes comes back to take out this low. 00:12:32 Matt Concordia See. 00:12:33 Matt Concordia See, it actually just broke through it. There we go now it's now it's. 00:12:37 Matt Concordia Going to go. 00:12:40 Matt Concordia And it's already 1:00 PM, so I'm not interested in anything right from here. 00:12:43 Matt Concordia So it ended up just not, I mean supporting it, breaking back down coming back up. So nothing of interest, but yeah, it is currently 1:00 PM, so nothing there for us. We could review this session what ended up happening right, we went to external liquidity. 00:13:00 Matt Concordia Here. Right we go. 00:13:02 Matt Concordia Up, down, external, internal, external. So from this point right here. 00:13:11 Matt Concordia You know, is that the next move is back into the range. I thought it was coming, going to come back into here and then go up in fact or what it end up happening was it just ran down into the into the low into the last point of interest right here so. 00:13:25 Matt Concordia Nothing much for me regarding actually actually or actual trades. I would have liked that continuation, but is what it is. It looks like it could go from here, but again it's really late into the session and so you could see it. It just allowed for mitigation of that. 00:13:43 Matt Concordia Your value gaps. 00:13:44 Chris Gonzalez There is this. There is still a big chance of too late laying on. 00:13:49 Matt Concordia So, exactly, exactly. Yeah, let's just Fast forward. 00:13:53 Matt Concordia To New York. 00:13:55 Matt Concordia Yeah. See, so it just failed right here, broke back down to take out that low because that's the thing. Like once it slides through back key levels like that. 00:14:05 Matt Concordia Like, where was it on the four hour? No, it was on the one. 00:14:08 Matt Concordia Like, look, see, there's an old peer value gap before it gets up to. 00:14:13 Matt Concordia Look. 00:14:15 Matt Concordia That one is like the the one that probably should have held. The fact that we slid through that and then slid through this one as well is like, OK, well, you know, it's just gonna. It's gonna need to go pick up some liquidity, which it did right picks up that liquidity then gets back up into that level allows for traders to mitigate out of their lungs there. Right. Because there were people that were long institutions that were long there to continue back up. 00:14:35 Matt Concordia And so this allows for that mitigation and then boom, that's where you get that really, really substantial. 00:14:42 Matt Concordia So super interesting how that played out there. Let's just do. 00:14:49 Chris Gonzalez It used previous highs as an. 00:14:52 Matt Concordia Exactly. Yep, Yep. He used. 00:14:57 Matt Concordia Yep. Yeah, it's just. Again, when we were thinking for upside, we thought it was gonna hold this fair value gap and get up to this high because this is a higher time fair, fair, fair value gap. And the fact that it closed back above this 4. 00:15:08 Matt Concordia Hour is is like a good sign that it's going to continue up right and it still could, right? It still could just now that use this for our order block and then go back up to here. So we might not have been wrong, it just might have been the wrong timing, right? And so we look at what's to come, we have FMC on Wednesday. So again the big move is going to come from Wednesday. 00:15:29 Matt Concordia So. Just keep that in mind. Yeah, we have that 4 hour breaking back down. In my opinion, there's two kind of scenarios I see in the bullish scenario I'm seeing. We have this fair value gap that one hour order block and we are going to target up to this high. Alternatively, I see that we swept some liquidity up here. 00:15:52 Matt Concordia OK, source some liquidity up here. Last up, candle. Right up here. 00:15:57 Matt Concordia And so I could see this fading back up into this leg and then breaking back down to come back lower. Those are the two scenarios. 00:16:06 Matt Concordia Anything you see, Chris? 00:16:08 Chris Gonzalez Well, I'm in right here. 00:16:09 Matt Concordia Shoot. Yeah. OK, sweet. So, yeah, these are the types of scenarios that, you know, it's it's difficult to to trade like or you. You typically don't want to. You know, it's more like you want to give yourself a bigger range or something that's very, very clear like because you could forecast and say, hey, you know, I think it's going. 00:16:26 Matt Concordia But if there's a buy opportunity, you could also be going up and so you really have to stay patient to where it's just a 9010 opportunity where it's just one sided. It's very, very clear that it's going in One Direction you know. 00:16:39 Matt Concordia But anyways, let's see how the day starts off here. You could see that it is. We got to 8:00 AM. 00:16:45 Matt Concordia So let's see what the 8:00 AM. 00:16:48 Matt Concordia Looks like so immediately we have some equal lows here coming right back up into this up candle. So I'm more assuming now that it's going to be downside. 00:16:57 Matt Concordia Just just because the first move was was straight. 00:17:01 Chris Gonzalez Up straight up. 00:17:03 Matt Concordia So little take out this high. Let's see what happens here. 00:17:09 Matt Concordia Note see. So it just went straight up. So it did end up supporting that one hour order block. We get completely through this fair value gap here. So now. 00:17:21 Matt Concordia But C. 00:17:23 Matt Concordia If this high is going to be the one that gets targeted now and again up into that, up into that major. 00:17:29 Matt Concordia That major high there. 00:17:34 Matt Concordia Yeah. So that was the case. So yeah, again. 00:17:39 Matt Concordia I do wouldn't want to short here because of the two potentials that we're stuck in a higher time frame level and then this shorter time frame level. If I'm looking to go long then what I would do is I would wait for this to break like we did, get the retracement back down into it and then go along. We didn't get that, it just went straight up and then it used this. Actually this little order block here as the fuel to to push it up so. 00:18:01 Matt Concordia All good again, there's just nothing. Nothing there that I would have been interested in entering on. But overall, the idea was really, really. 00:18:11 Matt Concordia Nice. You know they get respected though. The one hour level and start at rallying. So let's see what happens now. 00:18:17 Chris Gonzalez Big Picture read was good. 00:18:19 Matt Concordia Yeah. 00:18:20 Chris Gonzalez But it's one of those scenarios where you're just like it can happen either way. 00:18:24 Matt Concordia Yeah, it's just. 00:18:26 Matt Concordia Exactly. And it's just you. You don't like for me again. Like I said, I don't execute on these ones. The ones that I'm like. Ohh well, I see a bear scenario and there's and there's a bullish scenario now the difference is is that if there's a bullish and bear scenario but there's like I don't know 20-30 forty pip range that I can like I can manage within then. OK. Great. Then I'll take it. 00:18:46 Matt Concordia But if there's like 10 pips or less of a range to work with, then. 00:18:51 Matt Concordia It it it makes it difficult, right? It makes it difficult, but. 00:18:55 Matt Concordia Yeah. Anyways that so that's that's where we're going looking at this high. And again this the the weekly fair value gap. So any shorts really from this level could be really, really nice. So let's just keep an eye on that and see where we go from there. Let's see what is this 1045. 00:19:15 Matt Concordia So yeah, this is going to be what's it called? So we just took it out a little bit. Nothing too much. You can see another fair value gap here. 00:19:24 Matt Concordia With traffic, so I'm assuming that this is going to launch back up. Let's see. There you go. 00:19:30 Matt Concordia They got nice, inefficient run right from this fair value gap. So that's that's beautiful now. 00:19:34 OK. 00:19:35 Matt Concordia This is where I mean if I'm shorting. 00:19:40 Matt Concordia On the weekly. 00:19:42 Matt Concordia Right, so the weekly did exactly what we said, right? We failed to break lower. So therefore this high is the target and we have this fair value gap here to target as well. And you can see look at last sequence of up candles purged liquidity right here, there's a potential reaction point right there at basically 131. 00:20:03 Matt Concordia Our 113 six hundreds. So let's keep an eye on that one too. 00:20:07 Matt Concordia On the weekly, that's a weekly level. There you could see even on the daily perspective, I can get rid of this on the daily perspective. There's a fair value gap right here as well to look at. There's also this breaker block right here. OK. So really interesting level here for shorts. I'd also want to see though from this high to this low, where's the 50%. 00:20:29 Matt Concordia See, so 50% actually premium is right here and there's another fair value gap that daily one right here, so. 00:20:37 Matt Concordia Might have. Yeah, it it's definitely a strong area. Might have to pump up a little bit more before we we get the the actual cells. But yeah, I would say the cells are going to come up in and around this level. So right now it's already 12. So let's just, let's just go to the next session. You cool with that? 00:20:54 Matt Concordia Yeah. So again, we started off this session and again, this is FOC day. So this is a like. That's when the volatility is gonna get injected to the market at 2:00 PM. 00:21:05 Matt Concordia So I'm assuming that we're going to come back up into this level and then down, FMC is going to be the big rip down. But again this is would be a no trade day for me personally, just because again, I don't want to trade in front of a big news event like that. But I would assume that, yeah, this this old fear value gap that held once and that's holding again that we took out. 00:21:29 Matt Concordia The previous or the current daily low here and respected it. It's the same thing that happened on the weekly. Remember where if we look at the weekly where we had this low sweep below these lows closed back above, this is the high that got taken out on this candle, right. So same thing on the hourly here. 00:21:47 Matt Concordia Where this swept below these lows, this is the high that's likely to get taken out right? 00:21:54 Matt Concordia So yeah, let's see if it's going to come back up like that. That's what I would assume. 00:21:59 Matt Concordia But again, it is FOMC. So stranger things have happened. If it doesn't, if it doesn't workout. But here is the fair value gap and order block. Right here. So. This would be the trade, like so up into this high like that. 00:22:27 Matt Concordia See, so it's it's this looks really good. This it really does like F / C van. What the hell should we just go in? Like a small position? 00:22:36 Chris Gonzalez You can you can take it just. 00:22:37 Chris Gonzalez One quick look. 00:22:38 Matt Concordia Yeah, let's, let's let's put a a small position. 00:22:40 Chris Gonzalez You'll see some action. 00:22:41 Matt Concordia Yeah, exactly, just just cause I wanna get some action going, but let's go. Let's go. .5%. And again, if you guys are unaware, we pushed an update to fix replay. So you could include take profit or stop loss. You can manage it and put it however many pips you want. So let's just round up here and this is something that I love, like the fact that you could just add the pips. Now is just so so clutch. 00:23:02 Matt Concordia And so, yeah, I would say 12 points is or 12 pips as well. You could add auto break even. So let's just say after one. 00:23:08 Matt Concordia Or let's go break even after one hour and justice show you how it is. 00:23:13 Matt Concordia And then yeah, we could tag it, save it as a journal, but we're not going to do any of that as of right now. 00:23:17 Chris Gonzalez Brother, it moved. It moved the break even. 00:23:20 Matt Concordia Wow. Oh. Ohhh, yeah, yeah. Good call. I don't know. 00:23:23 Matt Concordia Why? 00:23:24 Matt Concordia I accidentally went down. That's why I scrolled down. OK, cool. So now we are in the position. Ohh, I accidentally mark it executed, but that's fine. That's all fit there. Let's. 00:23:34 Matt Concordia Yeah, let's let this thing go and let's see if we can get a little wish. 00:23:39 Chris Gonzalez Right. 00:23:42 Chris Gonzalez Overall is reacting really nice. 00:23:44 Matt Concordia Yeah. 00:23:44 Chris Gonzalez I would have liked it to. 00:23:45 Chris Gonzalez Just. 00:23:46 Chris Gonzalez Push after live reactions. 00:23:47 Matt Concordia Yeah. 00:23:49 Matt Concordia Exactly. Yeah. You see how it's just holding this fair value gap here the? 00:23:52 Matt Concordia Bearish one and what's it called? Traffic right there that I don't really like that too much, but all good again. That's why we risked a smaller percent on it. 00:24:06 Matt Concordia There we go. So now we come back up. 00:24:10 Matt Concordia It barely took this high, but it's it's more. 00:24:14 Matt Concordia Yeah. Let's see. 00:24:17 Matt Concordia There you go. So after it takes out that high, I would personally just be at break even right here because you see how this these last sequence of down candles mitigated out of that or allowed for mitigation under this fear value. 00:24:26 Matt Concordia Up slash order block there. 00:24:28 Matt Concordia Like I would be able to put my stop on at break Even so what what I'll do is I'll just put it up under here and that way once it hits one R, it'll just go straight to break even and then we'll be good to go. But yeah, I'm more inclined to think that we are going to be going up one of the things that we have to be aware of. Let's look at the 15 minute for some extra clarity. Yeah, it is this. 00:24:49 Matt Concordia Because this we took out, we purged some pieces here and we have this order blog slash for value gap right up here right. 00:24:57 Matt Concordia So again, you would want to be break even here, especially on a. 00:25:00 Matt Concordia Day, like FOMC. 00:25:02 Matt Concordia Sure. So actually what I do. 00:25:05 Chris Gonzalez To the time. 00:25:07 Chris Gonzalez It is also a factor. It has to be considered we. 00:25:10 Chris Gonzalez Just have like 30 minutes left. 00:25:12 Matt Concordia Totally. So let's let's actually close that maybe 50% of the position and just lock in some of it, even though it's not, it's not a big trade. Again, we're trading FMC. So we're just or free FMC, so not to try to be too greedy. 00:25:25 Matt Concordia Or anything like that. You could see FMC's up. 00:25:27 Matt Concordia 2:00 PM So let's see. Watch this reaction here. If it breaks back down, we don't want to be in the trade anyways, so I'm just going to mess with our break even here just because. Again, it's all good. We're in. We're in that level where it could turn down. 00:25:42 Chris Gonzalez Respecting the FPG. 00:25:44 Matt Concordia And perfect. 00:25:45 Matt Concordia Alright, so that wasn't it. It was a good trade and that's why, like it was so clear right here, you know, as you go down and sometimes it's like, oh, man, like, it's such a nice trade. I almost have to take that. I would be. I'd be crazy if I if I didn't take it, but aggressively managed for the pre FMC trade and like. 00:25:46 Was. 00:26:04 Matt Concordia Again, that's it. To me, that was a good trade. 00:26:07 Chris Gonzalez Yeah, we don't buy. We don't advise people. 00:26:11 Chris Gonzalez On on trading during years days because just makes. 00:26:18 Chris Gonzalez Everything's low permeability. 00:26:20 Chris Gonzalez But if you're doing so, I'm least. 00:26:24 Chris Gonzalez Risk. 00:26:26 Chris Gonzalez Less than you usually do. 00:26:28 Matt Concordia Yeah, totally. And like, it's not even like we're we're we're trading on a news day, but we're not trading the actual news. And I think that that's really an important distinction as well. It's like it's like you could trade pre news. And actually, I do pretty frequently pre news trading and then post news trading though like post News is where you get the real. 00:26:46 Matt Concordia The real move, but like when you know that, hey, it we're very likely to come out and take out this high. Alright. Well, I could I could trade into that and you know I won't risk as much but it's because it's pre news but it's it's it's. 00:26:59 Matt Concordia In my opinion, highly likely that that's going to happen, so let's just put some risk on and and I think that that's OK. 00:27:05 Chris Gonzalez I do agree. I do. Yeah, I just. I I wouldn't advise. 00:27:09 Matt Concordia Exactly. 00:27:11 Matt Concordia Exactly at least. 00:27:12 Chris Gonzalez Make some experience under your hand then. 00:27:16 Chris Gonzalez This side at the end. 00:27:18 Chris Gonzalez It's it's a decision that you have to do based on your data and your strategy. 00:27:24 Chris Gonzalez I'm just giving my opinion out. Yep, all of you. 00:27:28 Matt Concordia Absolutely. And so one of the cool things here with FX replay is that if we don't want to wait and click next, next, next, we could just go to. And if you actually go to custom settings and go to news event, we could actually go into the next news event which is going to be right here. So it'll just Fast forward directly to that. And so look at that, right, right to. 00:27:48 Matt Concordia The FOMC, and so Chris, any any bets here? Any bets? What are you thinking? First move is going to happen is on release. 00:27:57 Chris Gonzalez Just move is gonna. 00:28:00 Chris Gonzalez Which probably up a little. 00:28:02 Chris Gonzalez Bit more. Yeah. What do you think? 00:28:07 Matt Concordia We took it. The hourly high was taken out. I don't know, man. I don't know. I I honestly think it could just rinse down, right. 00:28:13 Matt Concordia From here but it. 00:28:14 Chris Gonzalez Hey, Jen. Hey, Jen. 00:28:14 Matt Concordia Can it can cause you see how it you see how it turtle soup this high already? 00:28:19 Matt Concordia This right here I see it so I could see it just like that. Was it inducing the inducing lungs and then now just slide right through this whole thing, but let's see. I have no idea. So. 00:28:30 Matt Concordia Let's see what's going on I-1. Of the things I do like is you see previous day high. We're operating above previous day high. This is a major, major liquidity pool up here, a lot of orders resting. This is if you're going short. This is exactly where you want to be going short from a high so. 00:28:45 Chris Gonzalez How many pips above the high are we? 00:28:48 Matt Concordia We are precisely. 00:28:51 Matt Concordia 13 pips so yeah, between 10 and 20 pips is what you typically want to see on uh, you know, on a the ending of a buy program. Yeah, exactly. The high high of day. So let's 00:29:00 Chris Gonzalez Yep. 00:29:02 Matt Concordia See. 00:29:04 Matt Concordia Yep, just immediately rips down into this traffic, and again, the reason being is because we like for multiple reasons. Actually, we took out that daily high by 10 to 20 pips. We got a a short term high here. It goes through it. 00:29:16 Matt Concordia Fails, breaks back down as soon as that happens. It's like, ohh God, OK, there's a potential that this thing could rip. There's also a relatively clean leg here. If I go to the one hour, you could see it. Look at that. Right. There's no traffic, so it it's going to want to seek into that and then final or finally you have the. 00:29:34 Matt Concordia Internal to external, so the next move is internal or complete reversal. 00:29:41 Matt Concordia So a lot of a lot of confluences there, but let's see. This is the traffic level. So it might respect here and go back up one more time. Let's see. 00:29:52 Matt Concordia Again, also the midnight Open and New York open prices are are in in around this level. So those are good supports typically. 00:30:03 Matt Concordia See what happens. 00:30:06 Matt Concordia Yeah. So just going to breakdown. OK, cool. So. 00:30:09 Matt Concordia I mean. 00:30:10 Matt Concordia We got what we expected really on this a 30 pip run for FMC. So that's kind of cool, but nothing that we would trade. So what I would like, what I would think is that this is the high of the week now based off of our analysis. 00:30:26 Matt Concordia So let's clean up and let's go to the next New York session. I have a feeling, though, this next New York session is gonna end up. It's gonna start like down here. Like it's gonna just run. It's gonna run in London. Let's see. 00:30:40 Matt Concordia No, it didn't. OK, thank God. 00:30:42 Matt Concordia Because that always happens, dude. Like, or at least I find after like a big. 00:30:47 Matt Concordia Big news event and like you get that manipulation and then you don't get an entry and then it's like the next day. You're like, oh, just come from New York. It'll be perfect. And then New York is all like, is way, way low. Like, it expanded heavy in London. 00:30:58 Chris Gonzalez For for people to know when we're living together. 00:31:03 Chris Gonzalez I can't tell you how many times we were so adamant and happy the day before on a setup. 00:31:10 Chris Gonzalez We just woke up really early because Costa Rica is in the best time to train your session, you have to. 00:31:17 Chris Gonzalez Get up really, really early and prepare yourself. And it was like ohh man. The trader happened 80% of the move has been made and it was just pain and sadness. 00:31:29 Matt Concordia To this and it honestly is so heartbreaking. Like what? What your where you have all your analysis and everything is right. You were patient. 00:31:37 Matt Concordia You. 00:31:37 Matt Concordia Did all the work necessary and and and you know you prepared and then all of a sudden. 00:31:44 Matt Concordia It just rips overnight and you're like damn dude like I was. That's nothing. Could explain that heartbreak like that. Like, I don't know, man, only only the New York traders will understand that. 00:31:54 Chris Gonzalez I think it's super painful, correct and and another thing I can add is the amount of bad decisions you can make afterwards, because you're just. 00:31:56 Matt Concordia Super Babble. 00:32:04 Chris Gonzalez Heartbroken in. 00:32:06 Chris Gonzalez And you and you really wanted to to. 00:32:10 Chris Gonzalez To trigger you know you have a session and and take something in. 00:32:15 Matt Concordia And do that instead of being. 00:32:15 Chris Gonzalez Then. 00:32:18 Chris Gonzalez The most painful experience. 00:32:19 Matt Concordia That's that's a great thing to point out because dude, it is so true like. 00:32:24 Matt Concordia You build up these expectations almost in your in your mind that you're like, oh man, I'm gonna smack this trade and. And I'm gonna make, you know, thousands of dollars or gonna pass this funded account, or I'm gonna do this. I'm gonna do that. You build it up in your head and you and you're so confident on the setup to happen. 00:32:38 Matt Concordia And and then you go to the charts that next day and it's gone. And so are all those expectations. All those hopes that you added passing your account and they're just gone with the wind and like, damn dude like it. It's so true it's it's those things need to be managed. Man. Those expectations need to be managed and. 00:32:54 Matt Concordia It's really hard sometimes, like really hard. 00:32:56 Chris Gonzalez It's. 00:32:57 Chris Gonzalez And it still is. 00:32:58 Matt Concordia It's. 00:32:59 Chris Gonzalez We are dreamers and and we like to pursue our goals exactly and everyday counts. And even before that when, because now majority of the. 00:33:13 Chris Gonzalez Funding companies don't have like a time limit. 00:33:16 Chris Gonzalez But we were. But when we were doing them. 00:33:20 Chris Gonzalez It was just a month and that set up. 00:33:24 Chris Gonzalez And and your percentage target was so close at the end of the month that you just wanted to? 00:33:30 Matt Concordia Risk it all out? Yeah. Yep. Totally then, yeah, that that happened 100%. And that's why, like, the the funding challenges are like or they were. 00:33:32 Chris Gonzalez I don't know. 00:33:38 For. 00:33:40 Matt Concordia It was more incentivizing like a a gambling style. Back back, you know way back when when it was just the monthly limits in my opinion, because that's not how you trade. Dude. Like you trade you get you grab a percent 2% you know you're happy you're you're done you take your time you don't rush things and then all of a sudden you start trading you know the funding. 00:33:54 Chris Gonzalez Through time. 00:34:00 Matt Concordia Challenges in your life. 00:34:02 Matt Concordia Oh God, I need to enter. I need to enter, like, enter everything you're trying to catch. Every little, every little move and and then you end up blowing your account. And then you think, oh, man, I'm a terrible traitor. But it's like, no, you're you're all good, man. Like you. You know what? 00:34:13 Matt Concordia You're doing is just take your time and and be patient. 00:34:16 Chris Gonzalez Itchy finger from Monday to Friday, Friday and then just Saturday and Sunday. 00:34:23 Chris Gonzalez Yeah, really depressed state. 00:34:26 Matt Concordia Haha dude, don't worry about it. It's true though it happens. 00:34:30 Chris Gonzalez I really like to talk about these things because. 00:34:33 Chris Gonzalez You see in social media just the positive side and now you can see the two traders that are genuine talking about this. Yeah. But but I don't think they do it as as we're doing it right now, like as honest as we're doing it right now. 00:34:52 Chris Gonzalez But I think it's also part of their or of their journey. I know most of them are really good traders right now and probably if they. 00:34:52 Matt Concordia 1. 00:35:01 Chris Gonzalez Experienced what we have experienced. 00:35:06 Chris Gonzalez Right now they would share it. 00:35:09 Matt Concordia Yeah, totally man. And I think it's all just like. 00:35:12 Matt Concordia I don't know. I get it. Like some people, they have a brand to uphold and and they want to look like they very competent in in what they're doing. And and I understand that and I understand that that's what you're trying to. You're trying to sell. You know that that you're you're good at what you do. But at the same time in the journey is all is all the same. People go through it and it's just really about your. 00:35:32 Matt Concordia Mindset to it. Like how? How do you interpret losses? Do you associate those losses with your, with your identity? Like, do you identify with those losses or are you like, oh man, I took a loss, therefore I'm a loser. Like, if if that's the case like that, you're gonna have a really, really hard time trading because. 00:35:48 Matt Concordia You have to take losses on the chin. You know you. You gotta just take them and then just keep moving forward. Keep moving forward. 00:35:54 Matt Concordia And. 00:35:54 Matt Concordia Like it's funny because some of my biggest. 00:35:58 Matt Concordia Trading days. Some of my best trading days have been when I took a big loss or not a big loss, but a couple losses or a loss right at the beginning of the day, like, I don't know if you remember this, Chris. But remember I passed the the ETF, but I think I can't remember what what? 00:36:15 Matt Concordia What challenge it was, but I passed. 00:36:17 Matt Concordia It. 00:36:17 Matt Concordia That day and I and it started the day started off on me taking a loss on gold, and it slid through my stuff up by like two or three R's. And so I was already. I was, like, down on the day. And I was like, -2 or three R and I had to, like, stand up, take a walk and like re re, like, get my head straight. 00:36:35 Matt Concordia And then bouncing back and then ended up passing it or passing the verification in that in that day. And and it was not because I was. I was making stupid decisions or anything like that or or forcing things or over leveraging. 00:36:48 Matt Concordia It was just, you know, you take it on the chin, you recollect your thoughts, there's opportunities that still need to be taken and and then you go from there and not. 00:36:55 Matt Concordia Allow. 00:36:55 Matt Concordia Yourself to kind of be phased by that. But again, if if I identified with those losses and said, oh man, I'm I'm a loser and whatever, then that never would have happened and and you would have missed out on opportunities. 00:37:09 Matt Concordia So yeah, yeah, it's super important. 00:37:13 Matt Concordia Yeah, I don't know why I I brought that up, but it's it's just the. It's how you deal with losses for sure. I think that that's a really important thing and I understand that you know some people that are teaching and stuff like that, they don't really want to show losses or they it's it's not to their brand to to show that they want to seem confident and stuff but. 00:37:32 Matt Concordia The reality is, is, is, everyone loses and doesn't matter who you are. 00:37:36 Chris Gonzalez Yes, you bring it up because it's important we try to be as girl as. 00:37:42 Chris Gonzalez As transparent as possible. Yeah. And because it's the things you're going to leave, it doesn't matter how good or bad you are or where you're starting out. 00:37:52 Chris Gonzalez You'll and this software can help you avoid a lot of pain, but we didn't have it back then when we were doing it so. 00:37:52 Matt Concordia Exactly. 00:37:57 Matt Concordia For sure. 00:38:01 Matt Concordia For sure. No, that's. And that's a huge thing. I was actually, we just had a our recent profit playbook guest which is undisclosed at the moment. I I can't say that until that's released, but. 00:38:12 Matt Concordia We were talking and, you know, there was a lot that was brought up regarding that sort of thing. And yeah, man. 00:38:20 Matt Concordia It's just. 00:38:22 Matt Concordia Ah, it's just such an interesting journey to be a part of. You know, it's just, it really is. 00:38:28 Chris Gonzalez Most challenging and. 00:38:30 Matt Concordia Was rewarding, yeah. 00:38:31 Chris Gonzalez And reward. 00:38:33 Chris Gonzalez Thing I have ever done for fight or. 00:38:36 Matt Concordia For sure, I I would agree with that 1000%. 00:38:41 Matt Concordia But also, yeah, yeah, a little rant there, but that's OK. That's again, man, I think that that's, I don't know, like the whole, the whole the whole goal of this. 00:38:41 Chris Gonzalez Ongoing. 00:38:51 Matt Concordia You know of of doing this for me is like again back testing and chill. It's like talk about life and joy and have good conversations and learn to trade and. And you know, I don't know. I think that that's that's why. 00:39:02 Chris Gonzalez Not even. 00:39:03 Chris Gonzalez All the sessions are going to be the best ones most. 00:39:06 Matt Concordia No, exactly and. 00:39:09 Chris Gonzalez As you said this channel, this content is made for you guys to learn and enjoy because we're actually, if you pay attention to what we're doing and saying there's a lot of. 00:39:22 Chris Gonzalez Hindsight that you. 00:39:23 Matt Concordia Can use for sure. There's a. 00:39:24 Chris Gonzalez And at the same time you can. 00:39:27 Chris Gonzalez See the human experience of. 00:39:29 Chris Gonzalez People that have been doing this for for some time now especially. 00:39:34 Chris Gonzalez That you have done it for quite as long. 00:39:39 Matt Concordia Definitely, definitely a long time. And again there are some. There are some really good Nuggets that that we've been talking about, but yeah, again, regardless though, the whole goal is just to have good conversations, listen to some good music, chill out and just enjoy, man. Enjoy. Life is too short, you know, you got. 00:39:39 Chris Gonzalez Well. 00:39:57 Chris Gonzalez To enjoy and and for people who don't. 00:39:59 Chris Gonzalez Know we're just best. 00:40:00 Chris Gonzalez What is and and this? 00:40:01 Matt Concordia Exactly. 00:40:02 Chris Gonzalez Is and we live. 00:40:03 Chris Gonzalez Apart in other countries, so we enjoy a lot. 00:40:06 Chris Gonzalez Just yeah, yeah. 00:40:07 Chris Gonzalez Just having each other in this in. 00:40:10 Matt Concordia Exactly, brother. Exactly. 00:40:14 Chris Gonzalez You know what time is it, 920? 00:40:18 Matt Concordia Yeah. And I was just going to say that we just slid through 15 minute gap on the left after taking out this high right here into a larger gap. And I should actually put this one into Gray. 00:40:30 Matt Concordia And so again assuming that this is the high of the day or high of the week story and we had that. 00:40:37 Matt Concordia Mitigation here, right higher timeframe point of interest we took out hourly high and I think it's a no just an hourly high right here right and now we're closing back in the range. So I would assume that it's going to go down now. 00:40:50 Chris Gonzalez Can can I take a look at the? 00:40:51 Chris Gonzalez Belly. 00:40:52 Matt Concordia Please. Absolutely. Absolutely, brother. 00:40:57 Matt Concordia So the daily we took out a low. 00:41:00 Matt Concordia We rally back up into 50% of this week. It seems to be holding as of right now. Again on the daily is the daily ready for the expansion. I'm not too sure now this could close as bearish if this close is bearish then we have our swing point here which would indicate to me down but we would have to wait for a close in order. 00:41:19 Matt Concordia To confirm that. 00:41:20 Matt Concordia However. 00:41:21 Matt Concordia We could anticipate the close if we have a really good opportunity, right? 00:41:27 Matt Concordia And UM. 00:41:29 Matt Concordia Right now, I gotta admit I'm a little bit. 00:41:33 Matt Concordia I'm a little bit. 00:41:37 Matt Concordia What's it called? 00:41:40 Matt Concordia I'm not too convinced that it's going to go down from here, but I'm also. 00:41:44 Matt Concordia Kind of convinced that it's going down from here, so it's it's a little bit hard because the one hour looks very clear to me that OK, sure, we had this one, it should have went up and now we take out this high and we're holding this hourly for value gap. Again to me, I still think over the the higher time frame or the. 00:42:00 Matt Concordia The monthly is down and it's very, very clearly down. We took out that high. We're in a weekly fair value gap. We hit it already so, but we are just in this consolidation, so. 00:42:10 Chris Gonzalez Let's see if we can close or slit through that the verbally gap on the hourly. 00:42:16 Matt Concordia Which one? 00:42:18 Matt Concordia This one here. 00:42:18 Chris Gonzalez You see it? Yeah. 00:42:20 Chris Gonzalez If I see if I see a candle flows. 00:42:26 Chris Gonzalez Let's see what's below that gap. 00:42:28 Chris Gonzalez Maybe. 00:42:28 Chris Gonzalez We. 00:42:30 Chris Gonzalez I would be OK. 00:42:31 Chris Gonzalez Lean that leaning on the bearish side. 00:42:33 Matt Concordia Yeah, I agree. I agree. Let's wait. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if this. 00:42:39 Matt Concordia Happens. Me neither. 00:42:41 Chris Gonzalez Meaning that. 00:42:44 Matt Concordia Yeah, it honestly doesn't even look like it's going to get back up into that level. 00:42:49 Matt Concordia But let's see what time is it 945? Let's just go straight to the next. 00:42:53 Matt Concordia Hour. 00:42:56 Matt Concordia There you go. So the one hour did slip through it. 00:42:59 Matt Concordia Right. We close all the way back down right through that level. We have now the last up candle that purged liquidity into this point of interest. This high should be respected we have. 00:43:10 Matt Concordia In order block on the one hour like so. 00:43:16 Matt Concordia We have the inversion. We have another order block right here. You can see that. Look at this on the 15 minute that your value gap held nicely. 00:43:24 Matt Concordia So let's see. 00:43:26 Matt Concordia I'm assuming downside. I'm assuming it's going to pop into here and then come. 00:43:30 Matt Concordia Back. 00:43:30 Matt Concordia Down. 00:43:34 Matt Concordia And. 00:43:37 Matt Concordia There we go. High to low. Are we up at the 50% yet? 00:43:43 Matt Concordia Not yet. 00:43:48 Matt Concordia Slid through this. Is this a stain? 00:43:52 Matt Concordia Ohh, it's gonna sustain. Yeah, it's gonna break back down. So to me, this low is gonna be targeted now. 00:43:52 Oh. 00:43:59 Chris Gonzalez What? She'll make it. 00:44:02 Matt Concordia And we just purged. 00:44:05 Matt Concordia This high right there like again, if I was gonna, if I like, I was wanting to see it come up a little bit higher to be honest because the 50% was right here. So that's why I was waiting for something to come back up up into here before looking to take that short. But the fact is is we took out that liquidity came in here, went through this supported this fair value gap broke back down. I'm assuming it's just going to go. 00:44:25 Matt Concordia And take up these lows. Now, I don't see why it wouldn't. And you could actually see a little market maker sell model here. 00:44:32 Matt Concordia Right. 00:44:33 Matt Concordia You have your smart money reversal and then here is your accumulation or sorry, the distribution and then likely to get a distribution down into here. 00:44:48 Matt Concordia OK, here's your value gap. 00:44:51 Chris Gonzalez OK, you got me bean. 00:44:54 Matt Concordia Yeah. Should we take it? Yeah. 00:44:57 Chris Gonzalez The only thing. 00:44:58 Chris Gonzalez For you guys to know to know. 00:45:02 Chris Gonzalez It's kind of late in the session. 00:45:04 Chris Gonzalez Which you start. 00:45:06 Chris Gonzalez In. 00:45:06 Matt Concordia Yeah, 11. That was actually the 11, was that the 11:00 AM open? That just did that. Yeah, it did. So, 11:00 AM open. Just broke right back down. But it's supported, you see. Look at that. If we just took it right off of the one hour order block right here, we would have been set. And like, honestly, sometimes that's like when you have a cell model on the one hour. It's like, who cares? 00:45:25 Matt Concordia You know, you just enter right off that one hour and play the one hour 2 hour like. 00:45:29 Chris Gonzalez Yeah, we just interviewed one of our. 00:45:30 Matt Concordia That's. 00:45:33 Yes. 00:45:35 Matt Concordia Exactly that. Yeah, Mac, we did the profit playbook episode with him. And and it was essentially that as well. Yeah, it's just sticking to the higher timeframe levels and like, again, you don't have to, you don't have to go down on the the one minute or five minute or whatever to to justify or to validate your entry. You could easily get it on the higher time frame, so. 00:45:55 Chris Gonzalez Mind this tragedy that match your personality, this tolerance and time, and like still a lot of things to be honest. And then. 00:45:55 Matt Concordia Yeah. 00:46:04 Matt Concordia And then you're good. 00:46:06 Chris Gonzalez You're building. 00:46:07 Chris Gonzalez But. 00:46:08 Chris Gonzalez For our personalities, we like little. 00:46:12 Chris Gonzalez Movement during the session. 00:46:13 Matt Concordia Definitely, definitely. And it's good to just like I, I don't know, I I enjoy it being in and out in the session or in and out and whatever. And then it's easier for me. Yeah. So let's let's let's do that. And if you guys are curious if you're using Mac, you can use option B while while selecting your the profit calculator tool there and it will. 00:46:18 Chris Gonzalez Say. 00:46:31 Matt Concordia Set a limit order at that level. So let's go with let's go with 1%. I'm pretty confident in this one and let's let's let it rock. 00:46:42 Chris Gonzalez That. 00:46:45 Matt Concordia What time is it? 00:46:47 Chris Gonzalez A little late. 00:46:48 Matt Concordia Yeah, it is a little bit. 00:46:49 Matt Concordia Late, yeah. 00:46:50 Matt Concordia It is a bit late. Yeah, I'm gonna wait. We'll wait then. I wanted to see it get tagged in and then just drop there. But exactly, yeah. Let's just see. Anyways, we would have been tagged in anyways, but directionally. 00:47:00 Matt Concordia On point so. 00:47:02 Chris Gonzalez And this is what happens after. 00:47:05 Chris Gonzalez Volume has left the market. 00:47:06 Matt Concordia Exact man and dude, that's. This is what I'm saying. I think we talked about in the last episode as well. I'm back this and show where we were. Just like dude like, it's not even worth trading afterwards because this is the type of stuff that happens and you, you're literally just you're, you know, you're just. 00:47:21 Matt Concordia Crying just sitting in this and like dude, I don't know. I like. Yeah, it's just crazy. And that's why I just want to avoid that essentially. 00:47:31 Chris Gonzalez But it almost went back to the paint section guys. 00:47:34 Matt Concordia Yeah, albums. It's tempting. It's tempting, man. There's always temptations, dude, I'll tell you, you gotta you really gotta be dialed in to avoid them. 00:47:44 Matt Concordia But overall, this was a really beautiful setup. Again like. 00:47:47 Matt Concordia Urging this high here, taking out that liquidity you had that shift in change in state right here in, in the reason why it's a change in state because if we're bullish, right, these bullish point of interest should continue to hold and it did here look at Wick back in it went up, it failed at this high and slid through it as soon as it slides through and closes below on this candle. 00:48:08 Matt Concordia That validates the change in state. This right here validates the change in state. So as soon as that candle happens, you can look for just a retest of that level and take it from right there. So that's why we that was the one hour setup and then lower time frame Fractal was was this but. 00:48:22 Matt Concordia This is this was easily tradeable, could have easily taken it. I was just expecting this to pop up a little bit more up into this level where I would have looked to just mark it, execute it and take it down but. 00:48:35 Matt Concordia All good. I think we we read that perfectly, Chris. Great job brothers. 00:48:39 Yes. 00:48:41 Matt Concordia And already we're at 50 minutes. We're at 50 minutes. We have one more day left, should we? 00:48:45 Matt Concordia Just rip the ice, yes. 00:48:48 Matt Concordia OK. Well, let's go to. 00:48:48 Cool. 00:48:49 Matt Concordia Who? New York session and look at that. Remember how I said on the daily candle, right? If this closes bearish, that validates the the swing point and that's exactly what happened. And then look at this one in London, we get this wake up to come back up into 50% of this week and comes back down to take out the daily low that bread and butter set up like that to me. 00:49:09 Matt Concordia Was already is already a trade right like that. That would have been the the bread and butter setup, so we probably missed it in New York. But if you're looking to continue on with the monthly trend at continuation down, we're looking at taking out swing lows on the daily. So I would look at this swing low here, right, higher low to the left, lower low, higher low. So this is a swing. 00:49:29 Matt Concordia Low, lower, low, higher low. This is sway, so these are probably gonna be the draws on liquidity, but we'll see if it manages it today on a Friday or or if that was it, but. 00:49:39 Chris Gonzalez How many days left for the month? close like weed war? 00:49:44 Matt Concordia What is it? It's the 22nd. So no, there's still. There's still a good amount. We still have until. 00:49:51 Matt Concordia Next Friday? Basically. So yeah, so still a lot of. 00:49:54 Chris Gonzalez Opportunity. I I I don't know why I still like. 00:49:59 Matt Concordia No, no, all good, all good. But this one right here is a is a major level right here, right? This fair value gap again, it it it is exactly what we were talking about on the lower time frame, right where this is the. 00:50:10 Matt Concordia Flow, meaning this should hold if bullish. If this close is below on the four hour we retest it. Well guess what, we're targeting sell side liquidity, that's that's the flow. There's no other option in my opinion. So that's what I would like to see. Of course I would like to have shorted up here, but that was a London play and if we actually look at London. 00:50:32 Matt Concordia Let's see what happened. 00:50:34 Matt Concordia Explain this day to me please, cause this is just a a textbook sell day in London. 00:50:41 Chris Gonzalez Well guys, this is just an example of the thing we were saying. 00:50:46 Chris Gonzalez Where you're just adding money to the level and it just ran. 00:50:50 Chris Gonzalez Was beautiful. 00:50:51 Matt Concordia Exactly. 00:50:53 Matt Concordia But the three stages right, the three stages, what do we have? Accumulation. Manipulation. 00:50:56 Chris Gonzalez Accumulate. 00:51:00 Chris Gonzalez And then distribution. 00:51:02 Matt Concordia And distribution. So what you'll typically see in this case and like. 00:51:06 Matt Concordia Again, this is. 00:51:07 Matt Concordia Perfect, because this goes right up to that one hour level. Again, remember that one hour order block. 00:51:13 Matt Concordia Tags it. That's the high of London session. OK, you could actually use the range right here as a projection as to where price will get up to, right. And actually, if you use Asian range exactly with the inside the actual time you'll you'll get a better projection, but you can use bodies here. You can see one standard deviation. 00:51:33 Matt Concordia Runs up perfectly with that level. There a little hard to see with that, but that's OK and now you have the manipulation leg. So if I go to the one hour you'll. 00:51:41 Matt Concordia Be able to see it better. 00:51:43 Matt Concordia OK. 00:51:44 Matt Concordia The one hour you have these last sequence of up candles. If I measure the last sequence above candles. OK, just like that. 00:51:51 Matt Concordia And I use my range expansion down. I'm looking at A1 standard deviation at 2 1/2 standard deviation, or two to 2 1/2 standard deviation so you know we still have. We still have time or area to run to. I wouldn't be surprised if this hits here and we get a retracement though down into this next area, which is perfectly in line. 00:52:11 Matt Concordia With this level right there, so wouldn't be surprised. 00:52:14 Matt Concordia To see that. 00:52:16 Matt Concordia But beautiful. I love these types of days, man like. 00:52:19 Matt Concordia Stimulation, manipulation, distribution right at the perfect time. So that means in New York we should get a continuation plate right, meaning retracement to OTE and then. 00:52:29 Matt Concordia Rip down. 00:52:33 Matt Concordia An OTE will probably be from. 00:52:36 Matt Concordia This high? What was it, 8:00? 00:52:38 Matt Concordia 830 let's wait for 8:30. 00:52:41 Chris Gonzalez This is something. 00:52:42 Chris Gonzalez We want to see, we want to see. 00:52:43 Chris Gonzalez Price immediately buy back up. 00:52:46 Chris Gonzalez Yes, until Friday. 00:52:49 Chris Gonzalez There is not much. 00:52:52 Matt Concordia Yeah, kind of left. 00:52:53 Matt Concordia Exactly. So it does. It does immediately start up on the one hour, although we did take up this low. So again, I'm not too, I don't like it as much, but let's see. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes right back up into here. You see this? This was the level right here that swept liquidity and we got this big. 00:53:09 Matt Concordia Run down from this level so I wouldn't be surprised if it comes back up into that 50% like that. 00:53:14 Matt Concordia Order block traffic right around here. This would be the in OTE for continuation down. I wouldn't be surprised to see that again. I'm not going to take this one just because it's it's not. I don't like how it's coming up so aggressively after taking out those lows and inside the higher timeframe for value gap. But I would assume it's going to be something like this. 00:53:38 Matt Concordia OK, so now that it hit that key level up here at the high, we shifted market structure right there. That's your look at last sequence of up candles that takes out what liquidity right here. 00:53:52 Matt Concordia OK, we break back down. Here's your fair value gap that's in line with the OTE. There's your confirmation entry right there. 00:53:59 Chris Gonzalez Right there. 00:54:01 Matt Concordia Right there. Yep. 00:54:02 Chris Gonzalez Yeah. 00:54:04 Matt Concordia OK, so this one we could take, Chris, if you if you're. 00:54:06 Matt Concordia Down I'm down. 00:54:08 Matt Concordia Let's just target A2 or perfect. 00:54:13 Matt Concordia Let's end it off. Let's end it off on the trade win or lose, doesn't matter. We're all good to go. 00:54:20 Matt Concordia Loss. Just straight loss, but that's all good. It was a a good opportunity in my opinion. Let's look at the one hour. Let's see where we're at. I guess the only issue was the fact that we did take out those. 00:54:31 Matt Concordia That previous day low into that year value gap, however, again based off the day, the Continuation day accumulation, manipulation, distribution. Realistically I was I'm I'm content with that, that should have that should have went on the continuation day but. 00:54:47 Matt Concordia Is what it. 00:54:47 Chris Gonzalez Is it is what it? 00:54:48 Matt Concordia Is. Let's go Fast forward going up. So it ended up having to actually take. 00:54:53 Matt Concordia Out. 00:54:53 Matt Concordia The the current daily high, and now that's probably. 00:54:59 Matt Concordia That's probably it, right? We slid through the fair value gap here. 00:55:04 Matt Concordia Slid through this breaker here. Fair value gap. So yeah, this is probably going to go down from here. Now let's see. 00:55:13 Matt Concordia Yeah, just consolidation and everything today. All good classic Friday. So overall, we took a little winter. I think it was right here or where was it again, Chris, I can't remember. 00:55:25 Chris Gonzalez I can't remember. 00:55:26 Matt Concordia Ohh actually perfect time to show off the. 00:55:31 Matt Concordia Closed positions tab. All we can do is just show it. 00:55:34 Matt Concordia On. 00:55:34 Matt Concordia The chart here, and we'll get to see. So Yep, we could see our position we entered right at this low after that sweep break back up, take out this high. So that was really good. And on this one we entered. 00:55:46 Matt Concordia Right down here. And so now again, we can look at our trades and look at what's the, what is the issue with this one relative to this one like why was this one winner and like you could see here that this is the, this is clear for me and and I know that this happens all the time. Chris I know like with you. 00:56:00 Matt Concordia As well that. 00:56:01 Matt Concordia When you purge, sell side liquidity and then the buy side liquidity. 00:56:06 Matt Concordia Hasn't been taken yet. That's when that's when the ones that typically work out the the best right? Whereas on this one we had the buy side taken right here and then we had sell side taken right here and so we're in between this range and then you can see how wiki it gets in here. 00:56:22 Matt Concordia Right. So something to keep in, keep in mind, maybe I should have been a little bit more cognizant of that and you know what, if this was a setup right here for New York before it took out the sell side liquidity, then that would have been the optimal trade entry to take down as opposed to it coming back down into here hitting into this fair value gap. And then coming back up so. 00:56:42 Matt Concordia Good. A good thing to study, but overall again super content with with the analysis and sure we we didn't. 00:56:51 Matt Concordia End up on a profit, but hey, it's all good. That's a part of the part of the game. 00:56:55 Chris Gonzalez All good. And just to point out something, now that you're saying that just pay attention to the reaction after it takes a higher or low. 00:57:05 Chris Gonzalez Because if you see our trade, it's in the middle of all. 00:57:09 Chris Gonzalez But you can also see a good reaction after it takes the lows and the highs. 00:57:14 Matt Concordia Look at that. Yeah, you're. 00:57:16 Chris Gonzalez Which is something we didn't get at all. 00:57:16 Matt Concordia Right. 00:57:17 Matt Concordia Yeah. Yeah, exactly. 00:57:20 Matt Concordia Exactly. So again, you're totally right, man. And that's a great point to to get across is that look at we take these highs, we break that down, especially look at what like we're in a consolidated market, right. We're in a consolidated market and and because of that you know you sell the highs and buy the lows and you have to be cognizant of where you're at within the range. And we just kind of got. 00:57:41 Matt Concordia A little loss into the range because I was so excited about the daily profile. The cell profile on the day that I thought for sure it was just. 00:57:49 Matt Concordia Gonna continue down and. 00:57:51 Matt Concordia About reacting to what actually happened, which was a one hour which through this level we reverted back to the range. What does that mean? That well, that means it's likely gonna go up, right? So. And that's what it does. It goes up to target. 00:58:03 Matt Concordia The external liquidity right there so. 00:58:07 Matt Concordia Anyways, a couple of great lessons been in in them. You know, I think we did a really good job with the analysis. You know, it went back up to that, that weekly level took out that high then looking for shorts, it just consolidated a little bit more, probably waiting on the weekly but overall. 00:58:21 Chris Gonzalez You can even scroll back to the office. 00:58:24 Matt Concordia Yeah, exactly. So all the old positions will be on here and you can see, I think that was the only one that we took, if I remember correctly, that was the the one trade that we took and then we took another winner, but that was on FOC. So that was reduced, reduced position size and then this one was full 1% risk on the Friday we lost. So we're. 00:58:44 Matt Concordia You know, 2% up. That's fine. We're just gonna continue going. And yeah, see what we could do. 00:58:51 Matt Concordia But I think that's that's basically it. Yeah, man. Yeah, thanks, Chris. Dude, I appreciate you again as always, for for being on and and helping guide me as well on the trade setup. So it gives it the extra Chris Confluence you know gives the extra confidence to to take it, but appreciate you. 00:58:51 No. 00:58:52 Chris Gonzalez 1st. 00:59:07 Chris Gonzalez Man, what you guys will see is the. 00:59:11 Chris Gonzalez My extra layer of confusion sometimes, but I actually love to bring my. 00:59:18 Chris Gonzalez Might point of views and perspectives because it shows it shows that people also decide on a trader that is less experienced. 00:59:28 Chris Gonzalez And. 00:59:29 Chris Gonzalez The one that has doubled the amount of my experience because. 00:59:35 Chris Gonzalez You being more experienced. 00:59:38 Chris Gonzalez You have more insights on the things I can neglect sometimes and. 00:59:41 Chris Gonzalez I really like. 00:59:42 Chris Gonzalez That because you can see the levels in the analysis that you can bring versus the one I'm bringing. And for the guys listening to us one day, I'll do a back testing. 00:59:54 Chris Gonzalez And chill alone. 00:59:56 Chris Gonzalez You can also see and appreciate how I approach the market versus you. 01:00:04 Chris Gonzalez Is is just. 01:00:06 Chris Gonzalez You're just more knowledgeable and and I really like that for people to. 01:00:10 Chris Gonzalez To see it. 01:00:11 Matt Concordia Yeah, and. And you know what, though, it's like sometimes what I what I've realized or like that's been I wouldn't say an issue, but I would say like it's almost because I've been in this space for so long and like have studied multiple strategies and whatever that those things can. 01:00:26 Matt Concordia That kind of blind you as well because you you're not focusing on what truly matters you you have these like inherent biases based off of what you've learned in all this knowledge that you've consumed, whereas that's why, like sometimes you'll you'll you'll say things to me or when we're trading live together you're just like, ohh, but what about this and. 01:00:44 Matt Concordia I'm like damn dude, I didn't even realize that or like, I didn't even think about that because it's it's the most like. 01:00:50 Matt Concordia Objective like simple solution or a simple thing that's likely to happen, but I'm thinking 10 steps ahead and and this and that and this and that and and honestly that's I think that that that's detrimental sometimes. So that's why I love trading with you and it's always a pleasure man and and it's always fun to do so I hope that. 01:01:07 Matt Concordia Everyone listening can can get some value out of the both of us and and also see you know where they read the market, right versus us or where they read it wrong and learn and and grow. And that's again the ultimate goal, so. 01:01:20 Chris Gonzalez Yeah, I appreciate. 01:01:21 Matt Concordia You appreciate you as well, of course. Thank you guys so much for, for for joining the ride, man, we'll catch you on the next episode. Hope you got some value out of this one, but yeah, that's it. 01:01:32 Chris Gonzalez These and the next. 01:01:33 Matt Concordia One. Yes, Sir.
